Wednesday, February 24, 2010
One Week Left
Written for your enjoyment by: Raff
I'm always intrigued by the Google and web searches that bring folks to this blog. A lot have to do with Latvia and Andy Rautins, some are for FHM (another Latvian connection), and of late a lot of olympic stuff. Of course there is the normal stuff that focuses on the Mount and Syracuse - much as this blog does. But last night somebody came here after asking "Can Mount St. Mary's make the NCAA Tournament?" Oh boy. Am I ready for them.
The simple answer is yes. All they have to do is win three straight games. None of those games involve the next two. Instead they need to win three in a row once the NEC Tournament gets away at campus sites as it will on Thursday March 4. Of course, the next two games will factor heavily into whether the Mount gets a home game - and who they might play in the Tournament.
At the top, the NEC race is pretty simple. If Robert Morris wins its next two games it is the Conference champ. However, at Wagner and the Mount loom so nothing is guaranteed for the Colonials. If they falter - and lose once - Quinnipiac can win the #1 seed by winning its last two games.
From there it gets a little more complicated. The Mount and LIU are tied for third. LIU holds the tiebreaker right now. However, to stay tied the Mount will likely have to beat Robert Morris and if that happens, its probably QU and Robert Morris will be tied at the top, which would give the Mount the tiebreaker advantage over LIU given its win at the ARCC over QU a few weeks back.
Looming one game back are St. Francis PA and Fairleigh Dickinson. The Red Flash are one game back - and will be well motivated when coming to Emmitsburg on Thursday. A win would likely get them a home game in the first round - assuming they also win at Wagner on Saturday. FDU travels to Sacred Heart before returning home for a Saturday game with Quinnipiac.
I'm giving a spot to Monmouth - although the Hawks could blow it - and finales against QU and Sacred Heart could lead to some problems. Leaving the final slot to either St. Francis NY or Central. Those two play Thursday night. A Central win would guarantee them a slot. A St. Francis win - and then another Terrier win on Saturday over hapless Bryant - would make it tough on the Devils to overcome them. It would be possible, depending on what happens at the top.
Sacred Heart's chances of getting in are slim. A Monmouth win on Thursday or a Heart loss and they are done. But if they get two favorable results there, they would play the Hawks on Saturday in a game that could have playoff implications, but might not matter at all because of the way the tiebreakers will fall.
It is rather confusing - and we'll have a little bit better idea after Thursday. At least at that point, we think we'll be able to narrow it down to specific possibilities. Unfortunately right now they are endless.